Which states are the
important battlegrounds in the 2020 election and why? Which voting blocs are
being targeted by each campaign and why are those particular demographics
crucial for the candidates? And what are some of the ways the candidates are
targeting these voters – by state and/or demographic – during the
pandemic? Your response should be supported by at least three sources (see
assignment guidelines for details).
Lille Gaeta
ReplyDeleteOne of the most important battleground states in the 2020 elections is Arizona. If the state were to vote blue, it would be the first time since 1996 to do at the presidential level. (Yokley) Post convention, Arizona was the only state that saw it’s numbers change, partially thanks to an endorsement by former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake. (Yokley) Michigan has also become a defining swing state in the 2020 election. Before 2016, Michigan had a 20-year streak for Democratic presidents, Trump breaking that with 47.3 percent of the vote last election. (Weigel) Places in Michigan that Democrats used to carry have swayed towards the right. Other key states include Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. With the exception of Ohio, Biden holds a lead- but one that falls within the margin of error. (Yokley) For the Biden campaign, getting these states to vote blue would help to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to beat out the incumbent. Biden and Trump have reserved TV ad time in 15 and 11 states, respectively- including the key states of Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. (Cillizza)
A voting block that is crucial to the Trump campaign is white women, especially suburban white women. (Ebbert) This is the demographic that helped him achieve victory in 2016, but throughout his campaign for reelection, Trump has been losing them. Republicans, in general, “are aware of the challenges of increasing support among women, particularly younger women.” (Semiatin 204) One way to target these voters that Trump is using is media ads. His campaign still sees women as suburban housewives, so the use of media ads, whether it’s by TV or social media, would be beneficial to them because he sees this voting bloc as a group whose only job is the house- i.e. someone with more time to be online. Especially during a pandemic when women in that demographic are even more likely to be home with children.
Biden choosing Harris as his VP was a way for him to seem more appealing to the Black community- a community whose vote he needs in order to clinch a victory this November. To help him reach victory, Black voters need to turn out to the 2020 election in the way they did for Obama. (Johnson) In order to appeal to this voting bloc, the Biden campaign has done a number of things. He visited Kenosha, WI to meet with the family of Jacob Blake. During this trip, his campaign also launched an that specifically targeted Black voters in swing states. Biden’s VP pick Harris also took part in events aimed on Black voters, like virtually meeting with a Michigan Black women’s group. (Johnson)
Sources
Cillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Ebbert, Stephanie. “Safe in Suburbia? Here's What Trump's 'Housewives' Are Actually Worried about - The Boston Globe.” BostonGlobe.com, The Boston Globe, 14 Aug. 2020, www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/14/opinion/safe-suburbia-heres-what-trumps- housewives-are-actually-worried-about/.
Johnson, Marty. “Biden Steps up Black Voter Outreach in Battleground States.” TheHill, The Hill, 5 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515189-biden-steps-up-black-voter- outreach-in-battleground-states.
Semiatin, Richard J., et al. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Weigel, David. “The Six Political States of Michigan.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 9 Aug. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/michigan-political- geography/?utm_campaign=wp_politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newslet ter&wpisrc=nl_politics.
Yokley, Eli. “Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States.” Morning Consult, 2 Sept. 2020, morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/.
Erin Fennell
ReplyDeleteMSS349-Political Comm.
This year's election is different than any before. Along with the election happening during a worldwide pandemic, and having almost the whole campaign turned digital, the amount of swing states this election is much larger than seen in previous ones (Cillizza). There is a total of fifteen swing states that will be seen as the most important during this election. These states include Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia. In previous elections there are typically only six or seven swing states being fought over and they were typically the same every election (Cillizza). The demographics within each state, as well as a change in the parties in power in that state has a big effect on how each state will swing in each election (Mejia and Skelley). This year's growth in swing states offers the candidates an opportunity to use their goals to really target a certain demographic in these states and sway the states in their favor.
With almost double the amount of swing states usually, both sides will have to work harder to win over their target audiences. However, with the pandemic, the tactics used to target voters will shift. Without the ability to network in person, the campaigns had to get creative with social media and another technology. According to an article by Penn Today “Trump’s campaign, for instance, has been advertising across multiple Facebook pages, while the Biden campaign has been advertising solely on his page” (de Groot). The article also discusses how technology can be used to mimic door-to-door promotions, explaining: “In the Google data you can actually see the ZIP codes that Biden is targeting in Pennsylvania, for instance. He’s been targeting ads in high Democratic areas, like part of Pittsburgh, sections of Philadelphia, and the suburbs right outside of Philadelphia County” (de Groot). This year's election left it up to the creativity of each campaign to do its best to mimic a normal election and gain support from their desired demographics.
One major group that will be targeted this election is women. For the Democrats it will be black women and other minority groups, and for the Republicans it is, and has been, middle class, prominently white, women. Along with Tv ads and other marketing tactics, the parties have also done more personal outreach to make their messages appeal to their targeted group voters. Biden's campaign has teamed up with Kamala D. Harris to help reach the black female voter population (Janes). Democrat, Nancy L. Quarles continues to explain the Biden's camping vision, saying, “What I’m beginning to see and have appreciation for is they’re doing things, such as doing more grass-roots training, that are extending themselves to coalitions that had not been tapped before" (Janes). Trump however, in the last presidential election, created his targeted voter base as “mostly white, middle- to lower-income, less educated, and alienated voters… These are voters who are perpetually ignored…” (Semiatin 89). This included white, middle aged women, who he believed will always support his campaign. The demographics could end up being the deciding factor of this election, especially if Trump continues to target such a small margin of voters, no matter how loyal they are to his campaign.
Works Cited
DeleteCillizza, Chris. "This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time." CNN Politics, CNN, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
De Groot, Kristen. "Presidential campaigning during the coronavirus crisis." Penn Today, University of Pennsylvania, 14 Aug. 2020, penntoday.upenn.edu/news/presidential-campaigning-during-coronavirus-crisis. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
Janes, Chelsea. "Biden Campaign Deploys Harris as Ambassador to Black Activists." The Washington Post, 2 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
Mejia, Elana, and Geoffrey Skelley. "Is The Electoral Map Changing?" FiveThirtyEight, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed. Folette BryteWave. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
Nicholas Ciampanelli
ReplyDeleteWith the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election only 56 days away (as of posting this blog), President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are in the midst of communicating their political platforms and messages to undecided voters across the country. In these last three months, both candidates are centralizing their campaign strategies upon two key components: battleground states and voting blocs.
Historically, the battle for the Presidency is waged in a handful of notable swing states. However, these battlegrounds are being expanded to a tremendously greater amount of states than in recent history. According to Chris Cillizza, the author of “This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time,” both candidates are reported to have advertisement reservations in eleven (11) states across the country: “Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.” Although television ads are a common means of political communication, ad reservations often indicate which states “campaigns believe their opportunities and vulnerabilities exist.” In addition to this extensive list, the Biden campaign is reported to have reservations in “Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia” (Cillizza). Although Biden’s ad reservations in Georgia, Texas, and other traditionally Republican electoral strongholds may appear trivial, the campaign anticipates these states will flip their votes due to recent demographic and political changes. This theory likely derives from marginal Democratic losses in the 2018 election, such as Beto O’Rourke’s U.S. Senate campaign against Senator Ted Cruz in Texas and Stacey Abrams’s gubernatorial campaign against Governor Brian Kemp in Georgia. By utilizing these elections as case-studies in traditionally Republican states, they allude to the strong possibility that Biden receives these electoral votes from these states (which voted for President Trump in the 2016 Election) and propel him into the Presidency.
In addition to the importance of battleground states in the upcoming election, the Biden and Trump campaigns are expanding their efforts to communicate with key voting blocs, one of which is women. Richard Semiatin writes in his book Campaigns on the Cutting Edge that women voters are a key target in the 2020 Election, which is reaffirmed by Celinda Lake, a pollster, in her statement that “‘women candidates help energize women voters. And in close races, you win with women voters’” (195). Additionally, the #MeToo movement of 2017 escalated civic engagement amongst women, resulting in this voting bloc to increasingly contribute to political campaigns and organizations, along with run for (and win) political offices across the country, resulting in both campaigns to develop strategies to target women voters (Semiatin, 192—195). Knowing this, the Trump campaign took early action to communicate with and engage women voters via a variety of initiatives. According to “As Trump Slumps, His Campaign Fixes on a Target: Women” by Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer, “[Trump’s] team has launched an effort to attract a ‘Women for Trump’ volunteer base and expand a large push to reach out to women… [and] convince women that his handling of the coronavirus has been better than they currently believe.” This approach aims to “expand Trump’s appeal beyond his base and to bring more independent women back into the fold” of the Republican party and in-support of President Trump’s efforts (Dawsey and Scherer). Therefore, these proactive communication tactics will likely enhance women voters’ perception of the President and bolster his overall support as the election approaches. Additionally, targeting women voters in key battleground states will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.
Works Cited
DeleteCillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, 11:37 AM, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Dawsey, Josh, and Michael Scherer. As Trump Slumps, His Campaign Fixes on a Target: Women. 22 June 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-slumps-his-campaign-fixes-on-a-target-women/2020/06/22/8bed7cda-af1b-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2020, Follett BryteWave.
Hannah Tebo
ReplyDeleteWith the election a little under two months away, there are around 15 states that are in play for the race to president. In the past few months alone, Trump and Biden have been reserving ad space in swing states and Biden is challenging Trump in states that haven’t been won by a democrat in decades (Cillizza). Some of the target states for each campaign include, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Cillizza).
In particular, it’s important to examine the voting bloc each campaign is targeting to. Currently, Trump is struggling to maintain two of the important voting blocs that led him to victory in 2016: senior citizens and voters motivated by economic issues (Klaas). This pandemic has forced Trump to choose between saving the lives of the senior citizens by keeping the entire country shut down or save people’s livelihoods by reopening the country. Trump’s decision to reopen the country during the peak of cases has cost him around 20 percent of his older voting base according to Josh Kraushaar (Klaas). In addition, white-working class women heavily favored Trump in 2016 but recent polls have shown they no longer support him because of his combative style, erratic handling of COVID-19 and effort to quickly reopen the economy despite the obvious health risks (Hook). Richard Semiatin argues in his book, Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, that women voters are crucial to the upcoming presidential election. Today, there are tools used to get women’s votes, generally a strategy called GOTWV (get-out-the-women’s-vote) that encourage female voters to register and vote in the election (Semiatin 201). This type of micro targeting has proven useful for Biden as he has teamed up with his vice president nominee, Kamala Harris, to tackle different minority and majority groups all over the country. This has in turn encouraged women on the fence about voting for Trump to consider Biden more favorably when it comes to voting. Biden is also targeting younger followers by appealing to younger voters key issues of college debt, affordable health care, gun rights, immigration and more while also reassuring those closer to the right he isn’t a radical leftist (Struck).
Lastly, Millennials and GenZers are now starting to show record numbers at the polls. “Millennial voting nearly doubled between 2014 and 2018 — from 22% to 42% — according to demographer Richard Fry at the Pew Research Center in Washington. Thirty percent of Gen Zers eligible to vote turned out in the first midterm elections of their lives. And for the first time in a midterm election, more than half of Gen Xers reported they had voted, Pew reported”(Struck). This means that with an increase of younger people at the polls, the better the chances they have of influencing the overall election. This age group could be key to either candidate’s victory.
Cillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Hook, Janet. “Working-Class White Women Are Turning on Trump.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 26 June 2020, www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-26/behind-trumps-sharp-slump-white-women-who-stuck-with-him-before-are-abandoning-him-now.
Klaas, Brian. “Opinion | Trump Needs Two Electoral Blocs to Win. The Pandemic Is Driving a Wedge between Them.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 4 May 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/04/trump-needs-two-electoral-blocs-win-pandemic-is-driving-wedge-between-them/.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE
Publications, Inc., 2020, Follett BryteWave.
Struck, Kathleen. “Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election .” Voice of America, 22 June 2020, 6:22 AM, www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election.
Like any other election in our country’s history, the swing states has always been probably the most crucial part of an election. This year we have a full slate of swing states where candidates have very short margins of a lead on their competitor. One way to look at which states are being targeted are the ones where the two candidates have ads running in them, that list includes; Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Cillizza). Currently, Joe Biden has TV ad time in 15 states, while Trump only has 11. Some of the more surprises in this is that Biden is targeting Texas and Georgia, states where a Democratic candidate hasn’t won in nearly 30 years. (Cillizza). At the moment, Trump only has a 3.5-point lead in Texas and a 1.1 point lead in Georgia. Those numbers can easily be reachable for Biden in the next coming months. The reason why these 11 states are so crucial is because of the value they hold. The Democrats will always get California’s of the world while the Republicans usually get Texas’ of the world however, those previous states mentioned above total to a 145 Electoral college votes. Those are important votes that can literally go either way come November 3rd.
ReplyDeleteOne of the voting blocks that the Trump administration is targeting is women, more specifically white women in suburban areas. Just four years ago, this group is one of the reasons why Trump made it in office, but in 2020 it could possibly lead to his demise. The article Safe in Suburbua? Here’s What Trump’s ‘housewives’ are actually worried about written by Stephanie Ebbert, got a quote from Lauren Leader, cofounder of All In Together saying “Trump thinks that suburban women are all white women and heavily independents and Republicans who he can appeal to. The fact is, he began to lose suburban women long ago”(Ebbert). If what got Trump over the hump in 2016 was this exact demographic, I am not sure if the “silent majority” is enough to win him the election in 2020.
For Biden, he is targeting the black community. This is a very smart move from the Democratic party given the fact that the African American demographic is very unpleased with Trump the last six months. Announcing his VP as Kamala Harris is a huge push to try to sway the black community vote even more. This democratic duo will continue to push the Black Lives Matter Movement and having Kamala Harris present Biden’s campaign to the African American community will help them immensely (Yokley). When Kamala Harris is speaking the black community will listen which will lead to a lot of votes swinging their way.
This election will be one of the most interesting in recent memory. Both the Republicans and Democrats will do their absolute best to slander the other side as much as possible and will continue to target their crucial voting blocs.
Cillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Ebbert, Stephanie. “Safe in Suburbia? Here's What Trump's 'Housewives' Are Actually Worried about - The Boston Globe.” BostonGlobe.com, The Boston Globe, 14 Aug. 2020, www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/14/opinion/safe-suburbia-heres-what-trumps-housewives-are-actually-worried-about/.
Janes, Chelsea. “Biden Campaign Deploys Harris as Ambassador to Black Activists.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 2 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-campaign-deploys-harris-as-ambassador-to-black-activists/2020/09/02/bf1a6552-ec68-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition.
Yokely, Eli. “Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States.” Morning Consult, 2 Sept. 2020, morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/.
Brianna Mejia (1/2)
ReplyDeleteSince we have already seen important systematic changes in the 2020 election, it is no surprise that this year is set to be one of the widest presidential battlegrounds in history. According to the article, "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time" written by Chris Cillizza, ad reservations are a reliable look at what states candidates view as swing states. The article identifies 11 states where both candidates have ad reservations which include Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Cillizza). However, the article also mentions 4 more states which Biden has also reserved reservations (Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia) (Cillizza). These are the states in which the candidates feel they can capitalize on opportunities or cover their vulnerabilities, also known as the swing/battleground states. The article mentions that some states that have never been battleground states before are up for grabs because of Trump’s “asymmetrical politics” and changing demographics in the county (Cillizza).
According to an excerpt in "Campaigns of The Cutting Edge" written by Richard J. Semiatin, Trump succeeded in 2016 by targeting lower probability turnout voters which included white, middle- to lower-income, less educated, alienated voters (Semiatin, 88). There is no doubt that Trump will continue to have this base as we move into the 2020 election. The Trump campaign will also capitalize by targeting what is known as the “silent majority”, people who are not radical and not vocal about the current social issues.
Biden, on the other hand, needs to capitalize on targeting black voters and other ethnic minorities while still showing white people that he is not radical. According to the article "Black Female Voters Say They Want What They’re Owed: Power" by Errin Haines, due to our current racial climate black women are not just the most consistent voters, but they could be the most coveted voters in this election. Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris could help him attract these voters. In addition, according to the article "Election Beat 2020: Focus on America’s Two Largest Recent Immigrant Groups" by Thomas E. Patterson, Hispanics and Asian American voters are some of the democrat’s most loyal supporters, but they have extremely low turnout. Targeting these voters could hugely help the Democratic Party. While suburbia is slipping out of the stronghold of the Republican party, the Democrats need to capitalize on targeting the new demographic of suburban women, according to the article "The Democrats’ New Loyalists? Suburban Women" by Rahm Emanuel.
To nobody’s surprise, these voting blocs are going be targeted by GOTV campaigns in very different ways in response to the COVID 19 Pandemic. While in-person interactions have been one of the most effective techniques in traditional voter contact, campaigns will have to switch to more digital non-contact ways of GOTV. According to the article, "It’s a lot harder to get out the vote during a pandemic", a transcription of an interview with Kimberly Adams, campaigns are turning to apps such as Turnout Nation, which has been seen to drastically increase voter participation (according to a trial study conducted by Columbia University). Apps that micro-target you based on way more characteristics than just your political affiliation can target you in multiple ways which builds relationships with a voter.
Brianna Mejia 2/2
DeleteSources
Adams, Kimberly, et al. “It's a Lot Harder to Get out the Vote during a Pandemic.” Marketplace, 22 July 2020, www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/get-out-the-vote-covid-19-pandemic-voter-outreach-apps-data/.
Cillizza, Chris. "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time," CNN 31 Aug. 2020.
Emanuel, Rahm. "The Democrats’ New Loyalists? Suburban Women." Washington Post 24 June 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/24/democrats-new-loyalists-suburban-women/
Haines, Errin. "Black Female Voters Say They Want What They’re Owed: Power," Washington Post 6 July 2020.
Patterson, Thomas E. "Election Beat 2020: Focus on America’s Two Largest Recent Immigrant Groups," Journalist's Resource 18 Aug. 2020.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Jailynn Caraballo
ReplyDeleteEach US election there are a handful of states that are the most important “battlegrounds” for the presidential candidates and their campaigns. These states are the ones that can make or break a campaign for presidency and are usually very frequently visited by each candidate. This year, there are more than a handful of battlegrounds states. “With 64 days left before the 202 presidential election, the number of swing states is far larger than we’ve seen in any recent election, a reflection of President Donald Trump’s asymmetrical politics and the rapidly changing demographics of the country” (CNN Politics). There are currently 11 states where both campaigns have reserved TV ad time. Those 11 states are: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are the 11 states that are currently being considered “swing states”. Swing state meaning that all 11 of these states could be won over by either presidential candidate. These are the same states that both President Trump and VP Biden have traveled most frequently during the 2020 election, these are the battlegrounds. These states are seen as swing states mostly because their polling is split between candidates. No polling institute has yet to discover which side each of these states is leaning towards, red or blue.
I believe Biden is appealing more to older multicultural voters. According to the Washington Post, “Biden’s coalition has some distinctive features. According to recent primary polls, he does well with older voters, gets support from both white and nonwhite voters and, according to a Quinnipiac poll, performs better with moderate and somewhat liberal voters than he does with very liberal voters.” Biden has been seen to poll poorly with young very liberal crowds, but great with older more moderate crowds. According to CNN Politics, “Where Trump is weak is outside the Republican base. In the ABC/Washington Trump's at 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both of those are lower than any Republican at this point in ABC News/Washington Post polling dating back to 2000.” This means that not only is President Trump only polling well with Republican voters, but that he is also on the lower end of polling when it comes to independent voters. There is however a main demographic of voters that both President Trump and VP Biden are working to win over, women. On page 202 of the book they discuss microtargeting strategies. “The need to target women voters has well been recognized by both major political parties. They each see recruiting women candidates up and down the ballot, finding the right message, and delivering it in an engaging and convincing way as essential components of good targeting. Where they differ is in the specific groups of women they seek to mobilize” (Pg. 202, Campaigns on the Cutting Edge). VP Biden seems to be polling better with multicultural women young women while president Trump is polling better with White American older women. Women are a key demographic for every election because women outnumber men in all states expect 9. Missing this big group of American citizens from any campaign will be detrimental.
Works Cited:
Byler, D. (2019, April 05). Opinion | Who is Joe Biden's base, really? Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/05/who-is-joe-bidens-base-really/
Cillizza, C. (2020, August 31). Analysis: This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html
Semiatin, R. J. (2021). Campaigns on the cutting edge. Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications, Page 202.
Summer Perratti Part 1
ReplyDeleteWhile the 2020 election will be unique, there will still be traditional factors that both the Biden and Trump campaigns will have to consider. One of the most prevalent factors will be battleground states. This election cycle, some of the most important battleground states are Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. They are considered battleground states because both Republicans and Democrats have a decent chance of swinging the state to their party, ultimately making them swing states as well. According to CNN’s article titled “This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time” by Chris Cillizza, “…the number of swing states is far larger than we’ve seen in any recent election, [which is] a reflection of President Donald Trump’s asymmetrical politics and the rapidly changing demographics in the country” (1). Since the apparent emergence of a politically divisive climate in 2016, traditionally both red and blue states have the potential to swing parties. To combat this, both campaigns must efficiently strategize to win the majority of the vote. A significant strategy used by both campaigns is to target specific voter demographics that appeal most to their parties. For Democratic nominee Joe Biden, his strength lies in the hands of several demographics: college-educated whites, the youth generation, Black Americans, women, and other minority groups. President Donald Trump’s base is largely non-college educated white voters, lower-income whites, as well as white Americans who do not have a consistent voting history. According to Richard Semiatin in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, the Trump campaign made an effort to reach out to “lower-probability-turnout voters” rather than the “traditional Republican base.” These voters are “perpetually ignored” and “disenfranchised,” as observed by Matt Braynard, the head of the Trump campaign’s data program in 2016. According to Braynard, Trump’s effort to reach this demographic created a “safe space” for the particular population, and in turn made them the President’s “most fervent” supporters (Semiatin 88).
Jessica Bischer
ReplyDeleteWith every election, there are several important "battleground" or "swing" states to keep an eye on in 2020. Campaign teams will target voters in Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia. Candidates will often aim for these states for one of two reasons. The first being evidence of close margins between candidates in the polls, a sign that it may be easy to win the majority. Campaigns will also target particular states, such as Georgia or Florida, because of the number of electoral votes they offer (Cillizza).
Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, has voiced his support for several voting-blocs both outright and subliminally. The first, a rather large bloc, are voters of color. Biden claims to have what's best for minority groups in mind, despite some questionable remarks towards black voters who may not stand with him. With the decision to make Kamala Harris vice president, the campaign seems to be specifically calling out to female voters of color. Harris has made numerous appearances at black activists events with little publicity, letting the people know she is there for them and not for the media (Janes). Unfortunately, for the Biden campaign, Harris's past role as California attorney general will most-likely receive pushback from groups concerned with police reform (Benner, MacManus 198).
During this election, both parties seem to be targeting the stereotypical suburban housewife that worries about their family's safety. However, the phrase "housewife", may be deemed offensive or outdated. There has been a surge in 2016 and again in 2018 of college-educated women voting Democrat, suggesting a continued trend in 2020 (Emanuel). Suburban areas in red-leaning states, like Virginia, are creating a blue majority that could be detrimental to Trump's 2020 presidential race. Candidates may be able to lockdown swing states by focusing on issues that are valued in suburban areas (Emanuel).
President Trump, on the other hand, has fewer voter blocs to focus on. In the 2016 election, Trump focused on silent voters in rural areas to drive himself to victory. This group often feels ostracized because of their political opinions and the Trump campaign provides them with a safe voting space. The goal was to create a high-turnout for a traditionally low-turnout group of voters and the victory in 2016 may have proved this successful (Semiatin 88-89). These quiet supporters often don't hold any value in the polls, hiding their vote from the public, and turn shocking numbers on election day. For many months before the 2016 election, Trump was not projected to come out victorious, much like this current year. However, the American people are now aware that polls are simply a prediction, and voting on election day can make a silent difference.
Cillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Emanuel, Rahm. “Opinion | The Democrats' New Loyalists? Suburban Women.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 24 June 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/24/democrats-new-loyalists-suburban-women/.
Janes, Chelsea. “Biden Campaign Deploys Harris as Ambassador to Black Activists.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 2 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-campaign-deploys-harris-as-ambassador-to-black-activists/2020/09/02/bf1a6552-ec68-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Camryn Newcomb
ReplyDeleteAs we get closer and closer to the 2020 presidential election, the candidates are starting to key in on the states that could flip to either party. These states are important because of the electoral college system where 270 electoral votes are needed in order to win an election. The swing states tend to differ from year to year. For example, back in 2016, there were only six swing states: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida (NY Times). Now, this 2020 election seems to have substantially more swing states. Trump and Biden both have ad reservations, which can be moved to another state at any point, in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden has ad reservations in Colorado, Virginia, Georgia, and Texas, as well (Cillizza). Virginia and Colorado both swung blue by about a five percent margin back in 2016, and Texas and Georgia both swung red by at least five percent (NY Times). Biden’s strategy is to campaign in those typically red states in hopes that that the climate change over Trump’s last four years as Commander in Chief could sway their usually strong, conservative electoral votes in his favor.
Voting blocs in common between both the Trump and the Biden campaign would be women and young voters. According to Semiatin in his book Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, “the need to target women voters has well been recognized by both major political parties” (202). How women are voting is being given extra attention in this election in light of the one hundredth anniversary of the nineteenth amendment this year. Women statistically vote democratic due to social issues, and the Trump campaign is trying to entice white, suburban women to vote for his campaign as they did in the 2016 election. According to the Washington Post, “if Biden wins over just one percent of white swing voters, he would flip four states and capture 307 electoral votes.” If Biden focuses on white woman, then he would have more than the 270 electoral votes needed in order to be elected. Young voters are a new voting bloc targeted by campaigns. This is in light of “record turnout in the 2018 midterms, signs of political activism, and a handful of issues being used as a rallying cry, including soaring college debt, healthcare and climate change, stand as evidence” (Voa News). If the record turnout of young Americans continues, as predicted, then it is important for both campaigns to make them a priority as their campaigns continue.
Because of the global pandemic that has happened this year, campaigning is looking different than ever before. There are no longer rallies in the swing states that attract big crowds and enthusiasm. While the prevalence of social media has always been used, it is now one of the only tools in trying to get people to support your campaign. Big data is still being used by taking personal and voting information to help predict who will win the election. The staff for both campaigns “have utilized voting data, voter registration lists, voter registration, turnout mail, radio, and ID calls as part of their voter contact operations” and each party will then prioritize their campaign based on partisanship and voter turnout rates based on precincts” (Semiatin 81). This has been used throughout past elections and continues today. While it is harder to campaign these days, this election is vital, and both Trump and Biden have to use all methods excluding large gatherings in order to secure a win.
“Presidential Election Results: Donald J. Trump Wins.” The New York Times, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president.
DeleteCillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020- race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2020, Follett BryteWave.
Jess Eng, Madison Dong. How Turnout and Swing Voters Could Get Trump or Biden to 270. 2 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/voter-turnout-270-trump- biden/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition.
Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election . www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election.
There is an old adage that states “when you take things for granted, the things you are granted, get taken” and in the 2020 election, both political parties are making great efforts to ensure they can maintain what is traditionally theirs. Historically, there are states that are a given such as the coastal elites who swing blue or the states in the middle of the country who proudly represent red. In 2016, there were three main battleground states compared to the whopping 15 states in which “the two campaigns believe their opportunities and vulnerabilities exist.” (Cillizza, 2020). Due to the evolving population and Trump’s “asymmetrical politics” (Cillizza, 2020), the number of swing states is at an all-time high, widening the playing field for both parties. But with a larger range, comes more opportunity for each party to individualize their platforms and target specific demographics with hopes of solidifying a win.
ReplyDeleteWith the General Election less than 60 days away, each party is strategically choreographing their role with potential voting blocs. Most recently, Joe Biden has met the family of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin and has “increased outreach to Black voters in battleground states expected to play a pivotal role in the outcome of November's general election”. (Johnson, 2020). Biden, who once called the Black community monolithic voters, is working hard to guarantee that his seemingly over confident lock on the black vote, is not lost to Trump’s prison reforms, money allocated to black colleges and universities as well as the lowest unemployment rate in recorded history prior to the pandemic.
Another bloc being addressed is the women voters. Regardless of a candidate’s gender, age, race, ethnicity, or party affiliation, they acknowledge “the women’s vote will be critical to our campaigns victory”. (MacManus and Benner, 190). For example, Trump is targeting the suburban woman. You know the one who is at home waiting for their three young children to get off the school bus. The one who would do anything to protect their children, not live in fear and keep any possible threat away from their babies. Trump viewed this as an opening and got rid of the legislation implemented by the previous administrations Obama/Biden in 2014 regarding federally funded low income housing to not only put these types of voters at ease but clinch their support.
Controversy continues to unfold around Biden’s stance on fracking in Pennsylvania. His proclaimed hostility against the hydraulic fracturing and attempt to ban it across America would devastate the state if actually enforced. In a hurry to shift voters’ perspective, Biden is now back peddling his statements and delivering his stance using more careful dialogue. Similarly, in Arizona, with the state bordering Mexico, each candidate is representing their beliefs concerning immigration which is more important in this state than others.
Though these are just a small fraction of individual blocs, it clearly illustrates the multiple themes needing to be addressed by the candidates. On some occasions, these individual stances taken by the candidates may conflict with the overall national party platform.
Works Cited
Benner, Susan A. MacManus and Amy N. "Women and Campaigns: Generational Change, Growing Activism ." Semiatin, Richard. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge 4th Edition . Thousand Oaks: CQ Press/Sage Publications, 2021. 190. Kindle.
Cillizza, Chris. "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time ." 31 August 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html. website . 5th September 2020.
Johnson, Marty. "Biden steps up Black voter outreach in battleground states ." 5 September 2020. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-steps-up-black-voter-outreach-in-battleground-states/ar-BB18JGfm. Website. 6 September 2020.
With 57 days until Election Day, America’s presidential nominees are devoting much of their attention and resources to swing states. These battlegrounds often decide which candidate reaches 270 electoral votes. When many voters are undecided, “swing precincts are the focus of both parties as they seek to persuade undecided or weakly identified voters of their own party” (Semiatin 82). This year’s election, according to CNN’s Chris Cillizza, has created the largest political battleground of swing states in recent history. 15 states are being targeted by the nominees, including Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, which almost always vote Republican. To me, the large number of swing states and recent changes in voting tendencies indicate that this presidency is up for grabs. I think the election will be won by the nominee that best targets and mobilizes the key voting blocs to swing some major battlegrounds in their favor.
ReplyDeleteDonald Trump has claimed that the “silent majority” will lead him to victory again this year (Bucchino). However, the white, rural citizens that his campaign largely appeals to make up only one voting bloc in this election. I believe it would be foolish of Trump to rely on his “silent majority” group, considering how close the race is. In fact, if just 1% of white swing voters vote for Joe Biden, Trump will lose (Eng et al). In addition, there are many smaller, increasingly vocal and powerful voting blocs that will play important roles in the outcome of the election. For example, Hispanics and Asian-Americans, who account for 1 in 4 Americans, commonly support democratic candidates. Although these groups have had low turnout rates in past decades, their participation in elections is actively growing and could have a notable impact this year (Patterson). Biden and Harris seem to be targeting these groups that Trump neglects, including Black women, who “are only about 7 percent of the population but tend to vote at higher rates than other groups,” according to Errin Haines. From my observations, it seems like some of the most powerful voting blocs are anything but “silent” this year.
The nominees and their campaign teams will be working to appeal to undecided voters up until the last hours of Election Day. Trump has been trying to gain more voters in the suburbs, insisting he will keep order. Meanwhile, Biden has recently used Trump’s negative comments about captured soldiers against him in a television advertisement played in five swing states that have military bases (McCammond). In my opinion, it’s crucial for the presidential nominees to continue trying to appeal to various voting blocs -- even ones that may not necessarily align with all of their campaign values. Moments can pop up in which a candidate is able to win over their opponent’s supporters, giving them just a big enough push to have victories in swing states.
Bucchino, Rachel. “Could Donald Trump's So-Called 'Silent Majority' Mean a November Victory?” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 23 Aug. 2020, nationalinterest.org/blog/2020-election/could-donald-trumps-so-called-silent-majority-mean-november-victory-167512.
DeleteCillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Eng, Jess, et al. “How Turnout and Swing Voters Could Get Trump or Biden to 270.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 2 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/voter-turnout-270-trump-biden/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition.
Haines, Errin. “Black Female Voters Say They Want What They're Owed: Power.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 6 July 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/06/black-female-voters-say-they-want-what-theyre-owed-power/.
McCammond, Alexi. “Biden Campaign Targeting Military Families in Swing State Ad Campaign.” Axios, 6 Sept. 2020, www.axios.com/biden-aiming-ads-at-military-families-19932f9d-9d2b-475b-ba48-2ea65d157d54.html.
Patterson, Thomas E. “Election Beat 2020: Focus on America's Fastest-Growing Immigrant Groups.” Journalist's Resource, 18 Aug. 2020, journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/2020-election-immigrant-voters/.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.” Political Campaign Communication: Principles and Practices, Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham, 2020.
Xavier Cullen
ReplyDeleteAs we approach the 2020 election, the presidency has become more and more polarizing for the past several decades. Since Eisenhower in 1953, President Donald Trump has the biggest difference between in-party approval rating and approval rating in the opposing party. As of August 24, 87 percent of Republicans and only six percent of Democrats approve of the president's job performance, an 81-point difference (Pew Research Center, 2020). And not only does he have an abnormally wide gap of support, a lot of voters in swing states are already firm in their decision for who to vote for in the presidential election. According to a September Quinnipiac poll, 93 percent of Florida residents and 94 percent of Pennsylvania residents said they have made up their minds already (Quinnipiac, 2020)
What this can show us is that a lot of voters already know where they stand on these issues, it's only a matter of getting them to go to the voting booth come November. This means that Trump needs to fixate on his own voter bloc or people that already like him instead of trying to worry about persuading Democrats to support him.
This strategy is similar to that of Nixon's "Silent Majority" campaign slogan that won him his re-election in 1972 by a landslide. Nixon appealed to the people in the South who agreed with his policies and disagreed with the new cultural push for integration yet didn't vocalize it nearly as much as the opposition, and he called upon them to vote with their beliefs and to restore law and order to the country again. (Bucchino, 2020).
Trump is trying to target the current day "Silent Majority" by attacking the current Black Lives Matter protests and riots happening across the country, similar to how Nixon attacked anti-war protesters in the 70's. Using rhetoric such as calling his political opponents radical leftists and socialists or calling anti-fascists thugs and terrorists.
This idea of the "Silent Majority" was shown correct in 2016, when Hillary Clinton's campaign staff vastly underestimated the rural support Trump got in Pennsylvania. "What her campaign had not anticipated was the large “rural and small city” turnout voters for Trump.27 Turnout increased by nearly 300,000 in these rural regions. The result was that Clinton was decisively defeated in those areas where her defeat was by a 3–1 margin compared to the 2–1 margin of loss for President Obama when he won the state in 2012." (Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 88). If Trump can secure that momentum that he had in 2016 and tap into the white population that feels ostracized in this country in 2020, he is in a great position to shock the world again with another stunning victory.
Sources:
“Trump Approval More Polarized than for Any Other President since Eisenhower.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 24 Aug. 2020, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/ft_2020-08-24_trumpapproval_01/.
University, Quinnipiac. “QU Poll Release Detail.” QU Poll, poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3672.
Bucchino, Rachel. “Could Donald Trump's So-Called 'Silent Majority' Mean a November Victory?” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 23 Aug. 2020, nationalinterest.org/blog/2020-election/could-donald-trumps-so-called-silent-majority-mean-november-victory-167512.
Semiatin, Richard J. “What Failed to Succeed: The 2016 Clinton GOTV Operation.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2020, pp. 87–88.
Given the role of the Electoral College, some states are of more importance to the campaigns than others as a result of their divided voting reputation in elections. These states are considered “swing states” as they could help or hurt the candidate’s campaign depending on their voting outcome. Specifically speaking, for this upcoming presidential election, states including Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, are a “relatively reliable look at where the two campaigns believe their opportunities and vulnerabilities exist” (Cillizza, 2020). According to CNN, the two candidates have planned “ad time reservations” for those states in order to widen the election playing field and make their mark on states whose votes could go either left or right. Particularly, Arizona has the potential to drastically change its outcome by voting Democrat for the first time since ‘96 (Yokley, 2020). Similarly, Michigan will be one of the most important battlegrounds because of how diverse and unpredictable its counties and regions of the state are in terms of political support (Weigel, 2020).
ReplyDeleteStrategy in each campaign differs depending on the minority populations that each candidate needs to secure. For Biden, his target voters include people of color, especially the black community where he seeks to “energize African American voters.”(Janes, 2020). Biden’s strategy is evident through his choice to have Kamala Harris as his running mate for the upcoming election as Harris has become an “ambassador to the black community”(Janes, 2020). African American voters have been on a steady increase until the 2016 election when they saw a decline in voting for the first time since 1996, at just 59.6 percent from a previous 66.6 percent in the 2012 election (Stokes-Brown, 2020). Along with this, Biden appeals to young voters, particularly new voters. Trump’s campaign focuses more on voting blocs including women, both millennials and Gen Z, specifically working on “how to better brand issue appeals to target women directly.” (Macmanus & Bennar, 2020). According to Macmanus and Bennar, these generations are “wielding an immense influence over how parties and candidates get out the critical female vote”. After 2018 was declared as “the Year of the Democratic Woman”, Trump plans to target these women to receive the edge he needs in the upcoming election.(Macmanus & Bennar, 2020). According to a Washington Post article, Trump says he will reach his “silent majority” as he points to it as his “path to victory” in the 2020 election.
Because we are in unprecedented times during a global pandemic, outreach from candidates throughout their campaigns will be slightly different. Voter mobilization is an emphasis in both campaigns through the use of modern technology, especially with the dire need for mail-in voting. This election will use voter information, microtargeting, and Big Data more than any other presidential election in American history. According to Semiatin, “Big data can help predict the probability of an individual voting and for whom”(Semiatin, 2020), which is why the candidates have chosen to use voter information to individually target their potential voters through targeted ads. Personal contact is seen as the most effective way to reach voters but given the circumstances with the pandemic, Stokes-Brown says that the use of social media will be a “critical component of an effective outreach strategy to mobilize minority voters”(Stokes-Brown, 2020). Aside from the use of technology and targeting, candidates also plan to focus on GOTV models to encourage citizens to go out and vote, either in person or via the mail. With this, the candidates’ goal is to inform and educate voters on how to vote and who to vote for.
Works Cited
DeleteOlorunnipa, T. (2020, July 30). Trailing badly in polls, Trump points to 'hidden' voters and the 'silent majority' as path to victory. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-polls-hidden-voter-silent-majority/2020/07/29/07fa0760-d1d3-11ea-9038-af089b63ac21_story.html
Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States. (2020, September 02). Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/
Janes, C. (2020, September 02). Biden campaign deploys Harris as ambassador to Black activists. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-campaign-deploys-harris-as-ambassador-to-black-activists/2020/09/02/bf1a6552-ec68-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition
Cillizza, C. (2020, August 31). Analysis: This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html
Weigel, D. (2020, August 09). The six political states of Michigan. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/michigan-political-geography/?utm_campaign=wp_politics_am
Semiatin, R. J. (2021). Campaigns on the cutting edge. Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications.
Tim Powers
ReplyDeleteThe 2020 election is proving to have a larger number of battleground states than previous elections have had in recent years. This election seems to have a wide playing field with both sides looking to campaign in states where their respective party has not won in decades. Both the Biden campaign and the Trump campaign have reserved ad time in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, the Biden campaign has reserved time in Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia. (Cillizza). These states are important battle ground states because most of them have a history of going to both Republicans and Democrats; they could go either way in this election because it is so open. I find some of Biden’s choices interesting because some of these states like Texas, democrats have never even dreamed of winning there in recent memory. With the large amount of states each campaign is planning on reserving ad time, it shows how open the race is. Or rather, how close the race is. Most polling is currently favoring Biden, however, not by much in some areas.
Black Women are being targeted by the Biden campaign as potential voters. Black women have long been ignored by the campaigns/politicians despite being a loyal voting block for democratic candidates (Haines). But for this election we see Biden paying a bit more attention to black women as potential voters. Biden has chosen a black women, Kamala Harris, as his VP pick. According to the Washington Post, “Biden is seeking to energize African American voters by embracing the Black Lives Matter movement, while simultaneously reassuring white swing voters that he is not a radical activist. As part of that strategy, Harris has become an ambassador to the Black community” (Janes). In other words, Harris is being used to court the black voter block, by either listening to concerns or reassuring voters that Biden is a good choice for Black women. Black women are crucial to a Biden victory because they are a part of the Democratic base. In 2016, black women overwhelmingly voted for Hillary Clinton at 94%, while in 2012, 96% of black women supported Barack Obama’s reelection (Williams). If Biden can’t get his own parties base, then how can he get undecided/independent voters.
The “Silent Majority” is being targeted by the Trump Campaign as potential voters for the 2020 election. In 2016 the Trump campaign realized, “it needed to reach lower-probability-turnout voters than the traditional Republican base” to win the electoral college (Semiatin, 88). They ultimately did just that because, according to The Hill, “there is growing suspicion that Trump supporters are not divulging their preferences to pollsters. This would be hardly surprising considering the left’s current cancel culture climate” (Young). In other words, this poses a problem for Biden because polling currently favors him, and that could solely be because Trump supporters are not telling pollsters their preferences. Trump will continue to appeal to the silent majority by pretending to be one of the people, by listening to people who have felt they have been ignored in recent years in favor of other, more defined voices.
Cillizza, C. (2020, August 31). Analysis: This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html
DeleteHaines, E. (2020, July 06). Black female voters say they want what they're owed: Power. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/06/black-female-voters-say-they-want-what-theyre-owed-power/
J.T. Young, O. (2020, September 03). Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/514664-hidden-trump-voters-could-have-big-november-impact
Janes, C. (2020, September 02). Biden campaign deploys Harris as ambassador to Black activists. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-campaign-deploys-harris-as-ambassador-to-black-activists/2020/09/02/bf1a6552-ec68-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html
Semiatin, Richard J., et al. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Williams, V. (2016, November 12). Black women - Hillary Clinton's most reliable voting bloc - look beyond defeat. Retrieved September 08, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/black-women--hillary-clintons-most-reliable- voting-bloc--look-beyond-defeat/2016/11/12/86d9182a-a845-11e6-ba59- a7d93165c6d4_story.html
Matthew Bruin
ReplyDeletePART ONE
Currently due to the politically divisive climate that exists in the United States, the number of swing states at stake in the 2020 election is much larger than it has been in any recent presidential elections (Cillizza). A battleground state, also known as a swing state, is a term that is used to refer to a state that could be won by either the democratic or republican presidential candidate by swing voters. During previous elections there are usually only six or seven battle ground states, but due to the circumstances for this upcoming election there are fifteen. This year, battleground states to keep an eye on include Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia. These fifteen battleground states
With this information, Arizona is one state that seemingly stands out and will have a bigger impact on the outcome during this election cycle. For example, when looking at this pole from Morning Consultant, Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in Aug. 7-16 but on Aug. 17, Biden had improved his margin over Trump by 12 points (Yokley). By seeing such an increase in support in the matter of days, it shows how Arizona is a valuable state that could potential turn democrat overall taking 78 total delegates from Trump, a state he won in the 2016 presidential election. If Arizona turned democrat, it would also be the first time doing so since 1996 (Yonkley).
On another note, due to the importance of winning the electoral vote of the battleground states, candidates usually designate a lot of time and campaign funds in winning over the demographics in these states. For example, “In recent presidential elections, the candidates largely targeted their media effort at about one third of the nation, the battleground states” (Denton 252). When looking at this upcoming election, it is important to also understand these demographics that both Trump and Biden are focusing on. For example, just like in 2016, Trump is focusing on getting the votes of suburban white women, where he has seemingly been losing support since, and the white male populist voters. Also, although Trump only won 8% of the Black vote in 2016, he is still trying to win over these voters and push to steal the needed black vote Biden is trying to get (Rascoe). Although this may seem like a unachievable accomplishment, Trump has claimed that he has been the best president for Black Americans outside of Abraham Lincoln (Rascoe). Trump has also highlighted issues aimed at appealing to African Americans, including improving black employment opportunities, funding for historically black colleges and universities, and tax breaks for investments in poor communities. His campaign also said that he plans to open more than a dozen field offices in critical cities with large African American communities (Rascoe.)
Just noticed a typo*
DeleteWhen talking about a democrat taking over the electoral votes of Arizona, I said "taking 78 total delegates." Dont know where I got that number from. I meant to refer to Arizonas 11 electoral votes up for grabs.
Matthew Bruin
ReplyDeletePART 2
On the other hand, Biden is focusing on older black voters, suburban women, and the winning over the youth. When looking at these demographics, Bidens tactics are clear. For example, Bidens choice of his Vice-Presidential running mate being Kamala Harris as a woman of color is aimed at winning of black voters along with women. Biden is also doing so by reminding Americans that he was Barack Obamas Vice President and by showing his support for these communities over his tenure in office. On a side note there is something I would like to mention. In some ways, I believe that by picking Kamala Harris as Biden’s Vice President running mate was unethical by Biden because he claimed many months ago that he was going to be picking a woman of color. Although Harris may help Biden reach black voters in a new light, by claiming he was going to be choosing a woman of color way before choosing Harris herself, Biden discriminated on all other potential options ignoring one’s qualifications while choosing someone strictly based on the gender and their race first. Even though this statement may seem controversial in some ways, I think that limiting one’s choices and only focusing on picking a candidate based on their race and gender is wrong and unethical. By doing this, I believe Biden skipped over a lot of other more reasonable options from the democratic playing field. In the end, although I understand Bidens choice in picking Harris, I do not think it was fair to announce he was only going to be choosing a woman of color off the bat. Additionally, just to be clear, although picking Harris made sense for Bidens campaign while looking at her qualifications too, I think this process and his pick was unethical because of how he chooses her.
Lastly, I would like to point out my skepticism regarding any polls from any source used due to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. For example, after Trump won the election in 2016, it became hard for me to believe polling due to Hillary Clintons favorability in a majority of polling. In a way the 2016 elections make all polling for me seem hard to believe and not consistent with reality. With this, I find it hard to believe that Biden has a lead in the election projections, and I firmly believe that the silent majority is a large population that people don’t know about because of the climate that makes people scared to admit their political affiliation. With that being said, I guess we will have to wait until November 3rd to know the truth!
Work Cited:
Cillizza, Chris. "This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time." CNN Politics, CNN, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html. Accessed 7 Sept. 2020.
Denton, Robert E., Judith S. Trent, and Robert V. Friedenberg. Political Campaign Communication: Principles and Practice, 9th ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2020.
Rascoe, Ayesha. “Trump Campaign Trying To Win Over Black Voters, But President Remains A Tough Sell.” NRP, www.npr.org/2020/08/14/902236623/trump-campaign-trying-to-win-over-black-voters-but-president-remains-a-tough-sel.
Yokley, Eli. “Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States.” Morning Consult, 2 Sept. 2020, morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/.
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ReplyDeleteMariam Shawish (1/2)
ReplyDeleteAlong everything else that has happened this year, the 2020 election cycle will definitely be one for the books. With that being said, it should come to no surprise that this year’s battleground states are unlike any other. There are currently 15 states “where both campaigns have ad reservations are: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin… Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia” (Cillizza). The state that seems to be the one to keep everyone on their toes is Arizona. Arizona has shifted from being a Republican stronghold to a true battleground state. Unlike previous elections, “Biden’s campaign has already spent millions in an effort to flip Arizona for the Democrats at the presidential level for the first time since 1996” (Yokely). Since Arizona has always been a primarily red state, democratic candidates normally tend to save their money for other states. But as “Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent” (Yokely), it looks like Arizona is the state to keep an eye on this election cycle.
One voting bloc is heavily targeted by the Trump administration are the voters that are usually overlooked by campaigns; therefore, they do not normally vote. This bloc of voters “’don’t get any voter contact love from the campaigns because they don’t vote. And they don’t vote because they don’t get any voter contact’” (Semiatin 89). Because of the attention that Trump campaign gave to this group of people, he turned a “traditional low-turnout (low-t) bloc into a high-turnout (high-t) bloc of voters” (89). Because of this shift in campaign strategy, Trump was able to beat Clinton in 2016. In order to win this year’s election, Trump’s campaign will have to give as much attention to this voter-bloc as they did in 2016.
An important voter bloc for Biden’s campaign is black voters. The Black Lives Matter has taken over 2020, making this voter bloc an essential one to the campaign. In order to win, Biden needs to focus on not only black voters, but black voters in battleground states. Black voter turnout took a dip in 2016, which is what hurt Clinton. Clinton lost both Wisconsin and Michigan by under 30,000 votes, due to the lack of black voter turnout in Milwaukee and Detroit. In order to avoid Clinton’s mistakes, Biden needs to focus on getting black voter’s attention and is doing so by launching “a new ad targeted specifically at Black voters in Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Titled ‘We’re listening,’ the ad highlights Biden's and Harris's stances on police violence” (Johnson). By focusing on this voter bloc, Biden could secure the votes he needs to win this year’s election.
Mariam Shawish (2/2)
DeleteAlong with everything else that has changed this year, comes changes in the way campaigns are targeting voters. With Covid-19 taking over our lives and forcing us to minimize all contact with other people, campaigns need to find ways to virtually reach voters. Campaigns are resorting to “Fundraisers held on Zoom. Leaflets left on doors that go unknocked. Volunteers phone banking from home” (Wilson). Like everything else that has changed this year, campaigns are finding new ways to get personal with voters through virtual events and minimum contact.
Works Cited:
“Chapter 12.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021, p. 89.
Cillizza, Chris. "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time," CNN 31 Aug. 2020.
Johnson, Marty. “Biden Steps up Black Voter Outreach in Battleground States.” TheHill, The Hill, 5 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515189-biden-steps-up-black-voter-outreach-in-battleground-states.
Wilson, Reid. “How Campaigns Are Adjusting to COVID-19.” TheHill, The Hill, 17 June 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503064-how-campaigns-have-adjusted-to-covid-19.
Yokely, Eli. "Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States," Morning Consult 1 Sept. 2020.
Harriet Rice
ReplyDeleteBlog #2
When looking at the 2020 presidential battlegrounds it is noted that both candidates have 11 similar states in which both reserved ad spending. These states include Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The three remaining that Biden has reserved is Colorado, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia (Cillizza). Biden has targeted 10 reservations that in the 2016 election favored Trump (Cillizza). Biden has also made the effort in taking ad reservations in Texas and Georgia. Since 1976 and 1992 these two states have not won in the democratic favor (Cillizza). Increasing campaign promotion would be beneficial here as if Biden is to win these states, he would gain 350 votes (Cillizza). This year, the most noticeable lead is in Arizona. Biden leads Trump 52 percent to 42 percent (Yokley). Biden has been improving his margin over Trump by 12 points since Aug 7 (Yokley). Biden's campaign has spent millions in hope of flipping Arizona (Yokley).
When looking at voters it is crucial to recognize the youth. It is recorded that young Americans have the power to play a major role in the 2020 election. This has been evident since the 2018 midterm turnout. The millennial voting has doubled between 2014-2018 (Struck). 2020 has presented many conflicts therefore, young voters are looking for the candidate to address key issues such as “college debt, affordable health care, expanding voters rights, gun violence, immigration, climate change, and economy” (Struck). It is crucial now that candidates target these issues as it has been five months and unemployment remain high for the youth. As well as racial and social justice after recent deaths and injustice in society (Struck). Another key audience for candidates to target is White suburban women who also had a great turnout at the 2018 midterms as well (Patterson). In the past, Trump has made it evident he believes the suburban housewife will be voting for him as he tweeted. In his tweet, he continues to explain “they want safety and are thrilled that I ended the long-running program where low-income housing would invade their neighborhood (Patterson). However, despite his confidence, it is actually the opposite as polls show he has been losing suburban support for months (Ebbert). This is due to his belief that all women are “stay at home moms” however it is seen that moms typically don’t seem to stay home as much (Ebbert). Looking at Arizona as an example, Biden leads among women 55 to 40 percent (Yokley). As Biden has taken on Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, Trump has made it evident he does not agree. He labeled her as a “madwoman” in an interview on Fox Business (Lucey). She is the first black woman and the first woman of Indian ancestry on the presidential ticket (Lucey). The vulgar comments that Trump has been known for does not help him in any way gain women's votes. It is now evident that women hold a huge toll in votes. In an effort to keep a positive relationship with women Trump launched a campaign called “Women for Trump” (Lucey). This is a bus tour led by the President's daughter in law Laura Trump. This is done to emphasize job gains for women and promote the efforts on paid family leave (Lucey). Young women especially now are more “racially/ethnically diverse than their elders, and increasingly lean more democratic even compared to men in their generations (MacManus and Benner 191). Overall, it is beneficial for candidates to demonstrate strong support for societal issues along with encouraging solutions and unity within all genders and generations.
Work cited
DeleteCillizza, Chris. Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time. 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Ebbert, Stephanie. "Safe in Suburbia? Here’s What Trump’s ‘Housewives’ are Actually Worried About," Boston Globe 14 Aug. 2020.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/14/opinion/safe-suburbia-heres-what-trumps-housewives-are-actually-worried-about/
Lucey, Catherine. Trump Seeks to Boost Support With Suburban Women. 15 Aug. 2020, www.wsj.com/articles/trump-seeks-to-boost-support-with-suburban-women-11597483801.
Patterson, Thomas E. "Election Beat 2020: Focus on America’s Two Largest Recent Immigrant Groups," Journalist's Resource 18 Aug. 2020.
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/2020-election-immigrant-voters/
Semiatin, Richard J., ed. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed. Los Angeles: Sage, 2020.
Struck, Kathleen. "Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election," Voice of America News 22 June 2020.
https://www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election
Yokely, Eli. "Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States," Morning Consult 1 Sept. 2020. https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/
Christyna Stagg (1/2)
ReplyDeleteIn this year’s up-coming election, it is different compared to past elections with the pandemic. Because of the pandemic, most of the process leading up to the election has been switched to online. This complicates the process of an election more than someone thinks it would. One of these complications is swing states. The fifteen swing states this election include Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Wisconsin, Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Virginia (Cillizza). Both Trump and Biden dumped tens of millions of dollars into these swing states for ad reservations because they could not justify spending that money in other states in hopes of turning them (Cillizza). For example, in North Carolina, an average of about 234,000 new potential voters have moved into the state since 2010. These new potential voters are more educated, thirty-two percent having at least a bachelor’s degree. This is beneficial to the Democrats because a variety of polls and surveys indicate that with a college education North Carolina is in the Democrat’s favor by a twenty-one-point spread (Wilson). The import or export of more voters is a very well deciding factor of the 2020 election. Another survey in Arizona of 943 likely voters from August 21st to the 30th indicates Biden leads Trump, fifty-two percent to forty-two percent among Arizona men, who usually are in support of Trump (Yokley).
A voting bloc that is being targeted by Trump’s campaign is “suburban housewives”. Trump is waiting for the turnout of votes of white women and suburbanites who helped him win the election in 2016 (Ebbert). These white women and suburbanites tend to be married women, over the age of fifty, not college educated and have an annual household income over fifty thousand (Ebbert). Trump believes that these women are all white women, heavily independent and Republican. He believes that he can appeal to these women like he did in the 2016 election, which is a crucial demographic for his campaign. A voting bloc that Biden and Harris are targeting is black activists. Harris has become an ambassador to the Black community, especially with everything happening lately in the Black Lives Matters Movement (Janes). Harris is a person that the black community can relate to because she is first black women Vice President candidate ever elected. Black activists are appearing to trust Harris for her plan for candidacy. The black activists are immensely unhappy with Trump during this time because he has done barely anything for this community during these tragic times. Another crucial voting bloc is the millennials and GenZers. The 2020 election cycle will find younger voters wielding an immense influence over how parties and candidates get out the critical vote (Semiatin). Key issues for young voters in this election are college debt, affordable health care, expanding voter rights, gun violence, immigration, climate change and the economy (Struck). Biden and Harris are much more in support of these key issues for the young voters than Trump is.
Christyna Stagg (2/2)
ReplyDeleteHarris took part in the “Get Your Knees Off Our Necks” march on Washington at the Lincoln Memorial on Friday, August 28th. She also spoke with about 100 black male leaders. One of the male leaders on this call was Crump, who is representing the family of Jacob Blake, Trayvon Martin, Michael Brown and George Floyd (Janes). Taking part in both the march and the call shows that Harris is someone black activists can relate to and have a conversation with. Having these appearances being unannounced and unpublicized is an advantage to Harris’s status as a black woman who shares many of her listener’s challenges (Janes). Although Trump used to appeal “suburban women” and “housewives”, in recent times, his appeal has dramatically decreased since he took office in 2016. Sixty-six percent of suburban women disapprove of the job President Trump is doing overall, while fifty-eight percent say they strongly disapprove (Montanaro). In recent weeks, Trump has been trying to get these women back on his side by using fear to do it. Trump has claimed that “our suburbs” would be destroyed if Biden became president, and “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America” since Biden is in favor of defunding the police (Montanaro). Having suburban moms and housewives not support Trump in this election like they did in the past election may result in a turn of events that Trump was not expecting.
Work Cited
-Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2020, Follett BryteWave.
-Wilson, Chris. “How Demographic Trends Will Affect the 2020 Election.” Time, Time, 11 Sept. 2019, time.com/5674850/2020-election-demographics/.
-Montanaro, Domenico. “Trump Tries To Appeal To 'Housewives' And White Suburbs, But His Views Seem Outdated.” NPR, NPR, 26 July 2020, www.npr.org/2020/07/26/895228366/trumps-trying-to-appeal-to-real-housewives-and-white-suburbs-but-they-re-declini.
-Cillizza, Chris. "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time," CNN 31 Aug. 2020.
-Ebbert, Stephanie. "Safe in Suburbia? Here’s What Trump’s ‘Housewives’ are Actually Worried About," Boston Globe 14 Aug. 2020.
-Struck, Kathleen. "Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election," Voice of America News 22 June 2020.
-Janes, Chelsea. "Biden Campaign Deploys Harris as Ambassador to Black Activists," Washington Post 2 Sept. 2020.
-Yokley, Eli. "Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States," Morning Consult 1 Sept. 2020.
Shannon Flaherty
ReplyDeleteFor the 2020 election is going to come down to battleground states. Arizona’s considered because of it’s 11 electoral votes and because Biden led recent polling while the rest of the swing states remain unchanged (Yokely). Florida there are 29 electoral votes and signs of Democratic dominance in polls. Georgia has 16 electoral votes and an opportunity for the state to go blue for the first time since 1992 if Democrats can surge the Black voter turnout. Michigan is interesting at 16 electoral votes, because in 2016 Trump won narrowly against Clinton. Minnesota only has 10 electoral votes yet both Biden and Trump are putting millions of dollars, despite it’s traditionally blue past. North Carolina’s battles for 15 electoral votes will be happening in the suburbs where women are still making up their minds. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, and despite Biden winning in the polls, people expect Trump to come out on top again in 2020. Wisconsin was unexpectedly won by Trump in 2016, but that then caused a surge of Democratic voters for the midterms in 2018. With 10 electoral votes there's no question that it is going to be a battle between parties for a “nail-biter again in November” (Staff). Trump is just trying to keep that same coalition that elected him in 2016 together. Texas could also be considered a swing state, but because a Democrat has not won in Texas, as well as Georgia, since 1976 and 1992, it’s questionable as to why Biden is fueling money into those states (Cillizza). The most coveted vote for Biden’s campaign is going to be Black women. Black women are only 7% of the population, however their turnout rates in the past 5 presidential cycles were over 60%. In addition to rejecting Trump in 2016 with a 94% vote for Clinton, there is a focus on defeating Trump in 2020. Joe Biden needs to hone in on these voters by proving to them that he’s not going to let the year 2020 pass by unchanged. By choosing Harris as his running mate, he has made advances, but Biden needs to continue to prove he will be running on addressing systemic racism (Haines). Trump needs to focus on getting back in good graces with the suburban housewives, perhaps by changing his rhetoric and trying less fear-mongering.
Flaherty Con't.
DeleteTrump needs to open his eyes to the fact ⅓ of suburbia are people of color. He began losing suburban women long ago and because they are not decisive currently, if he cannot swing their vote this election might fall to Biden (Ebbert). Both candidates should be focusing on the youth vote because young Americans take up a hefty percent of the population and ultimately are going to decide this election (Struck). In order to secure the younger vote, the candidates should be utilizing modern technology and appealing to a virtual community in order to make their campaigns appealing to Gen Z. Specifically, the use of female media figures/celebrities from Hollywood or music because of “tribe following” (Semiatin). Also, the candidates need to be issue-based with their targeting. The younger population’s key issues are college debt, affordable healthcare, gun violence, and climate change (Struck) and focus on addressing them and voicing some of their concerns with plans to change. Due to the pandemic the campaigns might not be as effective as the past because of the lost opportunity to do door-to-door campaigning. Making that genuine personal connection with someone is often crucial for votes (Semiatin). It will be interesting to see if that can be produced digitally.
Cillizza, Chris “This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time,” CNN 31 Aug. 2020. https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/
Ebbert, Stephanie. "Safe in Suburbia? Here’s What Trump’s ‘Housewives’ are Actually Worried About," Boston Globe 14 Aug. 2020. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/14/opinion/safe-suburbia-heres-what-trumps-housewives-are-actually-worried-about/
Haines, Errin. "Black Female Voters Say They Want What They’re Owed: Power," Washington Post 6 July 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/06/black-female-voters-say-they-want-what-theyre-owed-power/
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Staff, POLITICO. “The 8 States Where 2020 Will Be Won or Lost: A POLITICO Deep Dive.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 8 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-2020-presidential-election-409000.
Struck, Kathleen. "Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election," Voice of America News 22 June 2020. https://www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election
Yokely, Eli. “Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States,” Morning Consult 1 Sept. 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html
Foy 1/2
ReplyDeleteAs the 2020 Presidential election boils down to its final months, the crusade for battleground states is well underway. In this election, eleven states such as Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are categorized as such (Cillizza). Both Presidential candidates have reserved ad space in these areas in an attempt to take advantage of the voters' preference of their individual strong suits and policy ideas for the upcoming term. Chris Cillizza, who authored the CNN article “ This is the widest presidential battleground in a very long time” explains that the future of elections may change based on the widespread of states being fought over “ … for 15 states to be in the mix this late in a presidential election cycle -- including Electoral College monsters like Texas and Georgia -- is a new chapter in modern American politics. And one that holds all sorts of possibilities -- for both parties -- in future races” (Cillizza). States like Arizona, are especially important due to their history of voting red consistently since 1996, However, there are groups working to canvas the states Maricopa county, home to some of the largest Hispanic population to encourage voting for the former VP “Democratic activists are trying to turn out voters like Hector Nunez and persuade them to vote for Mr. Biden. Mr. Nunez, a 49-year-old Phoenix resident, said that even though the construction industry where he works has been doing well under Mr. Trump, he believes the president is racist. Still, he said he didn’t know enough about Mr. Biden to commit a vote for him yet” (Collins).
The Biden campaign has been vigilant in obtaining and maintaining the “diversity” vote from Black and Hispanic groups. Especially while choosing Kamala as his running mate, (despite her fan base lacking due to her decisions made as a prosecutor) the former Vice President has tokenized her, both as being black and as being a woman. Trump and Biden alike are in crucial need of the women’s vote. However, republican women feel as though it is more important for women’s support to be more so an amplification approach rather than dismantling and rebuilding their brand, “Recruit more charismatic messengers. fine-tune… the actual messaging, support women who want to run for office or run campaigns... The one thing the party does not need to do is change its platform or its leader” (Semiatin 202). Though both parties are vying for women, they each are focused on appealing to young millennials and GenZ women but have a harder time due to the progressive nature of those generations. Former VP Biden’s campaign previously created a platform/group called League 46 which intended to mobilize young people from groups all across the nation. There are subsects however such as “Students for Biden”, “Young Professionals for Biden”, and “Young elected officials for Biden”. Contrastingly, President Trump has made no such efforts.
Samantha Mesbah
ReplyDeleteBlog #2
As we enter the 2020 election cycle, we are entering a political arena that has been extremely different than prior years. Being in the middle of a world pandemic, the election cycle has been altered in every way. With the debate of mail in voting, to virtual conventions we are experiencing a new way of partaking in a presidential election. The corona virus outbreak has not only impacted the election but the lives of every single American, making it a priority on voters’ concerns and factors when deciding which candidate to vote for. According to the Pew Research center, 62% of Americans have said they will prioritize this issue when making their decision. (Pew Research Center) Ultimately, the coronavirus will lead to a shift in the entire election cycle due to the strength this issue has on the American people.
In addition to coronavirus a broad spectrum of issues has truly changed the political landscape as racial issues, health care issues, the economy and violent crime also are going to play a major role in the election cycle as these are issues voters care most about. (Pew Research Center) It is clear that this broad spectrum of issues is playing a significant role in the party affiliation of different states. It is the vast amount of issues and opinions that are evidentially leading the nation with more swing states than in past election cycles. “With 64 days left before the 2020 presidential election, the number of swing states is far larger than we've seen in any recent election, a reflection of President Donald Trump's asymmetrical politics and the rapidly changing demographics in the country.” (Cillizza) The impact of an increase in swing states, is both candidates trying to secure that state to identify with their party to ensure the electoral votes. As Cillizza goes on to explain, both candidates are now fighting to advertise and secure votes in these states, now increasing their campaign spending. “But for 15 states to be in the mix this late in a presidential election cycle -- including Electoral College monsters like Texas and Georgia -- is a new chapter in modern American politics.” (Cillizza) It is evident that broad spectrum of issues in this election cycle has impacted the entire political playing field, leaving many unknown factors about how this election will end.
With swing states and obtaining votes is the main goal of both parties right now, targeting specific groups of people is a strategy in which both campaigns are indulging in. The book, Campaigns on the Cutting Edge has emphasized the focus on targeting women and how this has been a goal of both Biden and Trump. “The need to target women voters has well been recognized by both major political parties.” (Semiatin, 202) According to USA Today, “With the pandemic, neither candidate is campaigning in person much, but both have had virtual events aimed at women, often featuring their female surrogates.” (Becker) As discussed the pandemic is impacting all parts of this election cycle and when trying to obtain votes both candidates are using a virtual platform to achieve this goal. The inability to campaign and directly interact with voters is clear bloc in the election cycle. On a personal level, being a college student who is studying remotely this way of participating in studies leads to distant interaction from time to time. It is hard to be fully engaged for a virtual standpoint, and from personal experience I can imagine many voters feel the same way. This is creating a new obstacle for the nominees as they are continuing to try to attract different groups and swing states from this virtual standpoint.
Ultimately, the swing states are going to play a major role in the conclusion of this election cycle. As stated we are looking at a political arena that is different than any previous election cycle. The increase in swing states is leading both nominees to push votes in these designated areas on mainly a virtual platform. I am intrigued and excited to see the outcome of this special election cycle.
Sources:
DeleteSemiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
"Important Issues in the 2020 Election," Pew Research Center 12 Aug. 2020.
Cillizza, Chris. "This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time," CNN 31 Aug. 2020.
Becker, Amanda. “What white women in Swing County, Swing State, USA, think of Trump.” USA Today 6 August 2020.
Ryan Miller pt 1
ReplyDeleteSeveral battleground states are up for grabs in the 2020 election. As suggested by Chris Cillizza in his article for CNN, this is the largest amount of swing states we’ve seen in decades. The states I’d like to highlight are Pennsylvania, Texas, and Arizona, all for different reasons.
According to Politico, Pennsylvania was considered one of the biggest upsets of the 2016 election. Watching election results pour in on television and Pennsylvania being called for Trump was the first moment of the night that anchors truly expressed the trajectory of where things were headed. It felt like the turning point of the night, and this year, according to fivethirtyeight.com, Joe Biden currently holds a 2-point lead over Trump there in the polls.
Texas is another state to watch. It was one of the biggest upsets Biden had over Bernie Sanders in the 2020 primary. A Politico article by Laura Barron Lopez and Marc Caputo from just a day before the primary states that, “Biden scored the endorsement of former campaign rival and 2018 Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, giving him a major free-media boost.” While this may have helped Biden edge out Sanders, there don’t seem to be any similar wildcards in play during the general election. In addition, O’Rourke’s support will mean less come election night.
Arizona is the last state to watch this cycle. As stated by The Morning Consult, Biden has surged to a 10-point lead over Trump in Arizona, a state not taken by Democrats in the general since 1996. With Trump relying so heavily on upsets in 2016 to topple Hillary Clinton, perhaps it will be upsets such as Arizona that will provide Biden the edge in 2020.
One of the key ways Biden and Trump aim to swing voters is through campaign ads. As Politico reported, Biden and Trump have reserved television ad time in 15 and 11 states respectively. Some of the groups that the candidates are aiming to swing are white male voters and suburban women. In the case of the former, white male voters have been shown to be more willing to support Biden than they were to back Clinton. In addition, Biden has received more tack on support from begrudged Sanders supporters in a way that Clinton could not.
Ryan Miller pt 2
DeleteTrump’s assertive tweet that he would receive the suburban housewife vote may not come to fruition as reported in the Boston Globe. Stephanie Ebbert adds that Trump is aiming to turn back the clock, and not in a good way. The article also mentions that midterm results show that suburban women have already turned on Trump awhile ago.
These ideas are also explored in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. Susan A. MacManus and Amy N. Benner explore how the #MeToo movement helped push women to run for office in emphatically stating enough is enough. Considering Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris as his running mate, it is interesting to note that the book states, “women with high profiles are often given important political party or interest group leadership posts specifically to ensure they appear as guests on all types of news-oriented programming, including half-hour newsmagazine shows on broadcast and cable television and radio.” The fact that Harris is a woman of color as well only further emphasizes this point, which can be argued is both positive and negative. There is some sense from Trump that he will try to exploit Biden’s choice as superficial or for optics, but with Biden continuing to stumble in regard to public speaking, there is also a sense of poise from Harris that is severely needed.
Sources:
Barron-Lopez Laura. “Biden campaign predicts Texas upset over Sanders.” POLITICO, 3 March. 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/biden-texas-sanders-super-tuesday-119207
Cillizza, Chris. “Analysis: This Is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/2020-race-donald-trump-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html.
Ebbert, Stephanie. “Safe in Suburbia? Here's What Trump's 'Housewives' Are Actually Worried about - The Boston Globe.” BostonGlobe.com, The Boston Globe, 14 Aug. 2020, www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/14/opinion/safe-suburbia-heres-what-trumps- housewives-are-actually-worried-about/.
Goldmacher, Shane. “Trump pulls off biggest upset in U.S. history.” POLITICO, 9, Nov. 2020, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/election-results-2016-clinton-trump-231070
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
Semiatin, Richard J., et al. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021.
Yokley, Eli. “Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States.” Morning Consult, 2 Sept. 2020, morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/.
Foy 2/2
ReplyDeleteCillizza, Chris “This is the Widest Presidential Battleground in a Very Long Time,” CNN 31 Aug. 2020. https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/
Collins, Eliza, and Chad Day. “The Battle to Swing an Arizona County in the 2020 Election, One Door at a Time.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 4 Sept. 2020, www.wsj.com/graphics/biden-trump-battle-to-swing-arizona-county/.
Semiatin, Richard J. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2020, Follett BryteWave.
Charlie Windels Part 1
ReplyDeleteAfter completing the readings for this week's class I learned a lot about the 2020 election and what factors ultimately play into the success of each campaign. I think it was interesting to see how 2020 differed from previous elections because there were more battleground states than usual. An article I read titled The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate talked about some of the outcomes in these states over the past decade and how they have changed back and forth between being blue and red states. The article also went into depth as to how these statistics compared to the 2020 election. In the article, it quotes, “Many of these states have appeared on the most competitive list during the 2016 presidential campaign. Colorado and Virginia were considered competitive in 2016 but became blue-leaning states in 2020” (K.Kenski, H.Kenski). Overall I think this is something campaigns have to pay close attention to. However, they also have to think about reasons as to why that state may have changed and whether it is worth their time to try and win that state back. I think this overlaps with what we were looking at last week with the polling and how strategy, timing, and effort come into play when trying to win certain competitive states.
The next reading out of chapter 12 of the Semiatin textbook mentioned how candidates in recent years are targeting certain states. It starts with what problems they see as most important, but also issues that stay true to their campaign's goals. An issue I read about in particular was the involvement of women in campaigns and how they appeal to not only female voters, but younger generations. The reading explains “The 2020 presidential candidates have all touted their hiring of women to top-level positions in their campaigns. It’s not just presidential candidates. Virtually every major campaign now has managers, strategists, fundraisers, media buyers, data analysts, pollsters, candidate recruiters, and consultants on board to ensure that women voters are targeted and mobilized” (Benner, MacManus). Overall I think factors like how many women are holding leadership roles in a campaign have a great impact on a large percentage of voters. These are the crucial things that campaigns look to address or take a stance on, but they also need to be aware of some of the smaller demographics in some of those competitive states.
Charlie Windels Part 2
ReplyDeleteAfter doing some further research and looking into some of the approaches by both campaigns during Covid-19, Both candidates were faced with a large challenge which was conveying their campaign goal mainly through social media and other forms of online advertising. The last article I read titled Presidential campaigning during the coronavirus crisis talked about some of the ways that Biden and Trump went about delivering their messages to voters and some of the challenges they faced. However, the article also talked about how despite this shift to online campaigning, the same approach applied when it came to reaching a specific demographic. The article quotes “this online push is reminiscent of a traditional campaign: all about finding out where to target attention and what message makes the most sense to send to those voters” (de Groot). I think this is a recurring theme throughout elections and shows the importance of demographics as well as competitive states. The article provided insight into the fact that despite the shift to a more online-focused campaign process, finding the right target voters and states is extremely important for overall success in the election process.
de Groot, Kristen. “Presidential Campaigning during the Coronavirus Crisis.” Penn Today, University of Pennsylvania, 14 Aug. 2020, https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/presidential-campaigning-during-coronavirus-crisis.
Kenski, Kate and Henry C. Kenski. “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate.” In The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective, edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
Benner, Susan A. MacManus and Amy N. "Women and Campaigns: Generational Change, Growing Activism ." Semiatin, Richard. Campaigns on the Cutting Edge 4th Edition. Thousand Oaks: CQ Press/Sage Publications, 2021. 190.